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发表时间:2017-01-02内容来源:VOA英语学习网

As Washington steels itself for the arrival of Donald Trump and a rise in interest rates, China could be forgiven for feeling itself besieged.

在华盛顿准备好迎接唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)的到来以及利率上升之际,中国可能会情有可原地产生一种受到围困的感觉。

The country is home to the world’s most leveraged corporate sector, a notoriously volatile property sector and a swath of banks that depend on borrowing on the money markets to fund loans.

中国拥有全球杠杆率最高的企业部门,房地产行业以波动出名,还有众多银行依赖货币市场借款为贷款融资。

That makes the Chinese economy particularly sensitive to expectations of increasing interest rates, which together with the strong US dollar since Mr Trump’s election, have already sparked a rush to sell emerging market bonds and stocks.

这使得中国经济对加息预期尤为敏感,再加上特朗普当选以来美元走强,已引发一波新兴市场债券和股票抛售潮。

I think the Trump factor [will result in] more aggressive hiking of US interest rates, not just the one expected in December but also several times next year, said Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Mizuho Securities in Hong Kong,

瑞穗证券(Mizuho Securities)驻香港首席经济学家沈建光表示:我认为特朗普因素会导致美联储更加激进地上调美国利率,不仅是12月各方预期的这一次,明年还会有好几次。

speaking ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting which is widely expected to raise rates next week.

他在下周美联储(Fed)开会前发表了上述言论,市场普遍预计此次会议将宣布加息。

A stronger US dollar will complicate the Chinese government’s efforts to stabilise the renminbi exchange rate and Beijing may have to tighten monetary policy, he added.

他还表示:美元走强将使中国政府稳定人民币汇率的努力复杂化,北京方面可能不得不收紧货币政策。

The vast size of China’s corporate debt mountain — which stands at over 250 per cent of gross domestic product, up from 125 per cent in 2008 — means that even minor increases in short-term interest rates may squeeze corporate activity and precipitate defaults, thereby hampering economic growth.

中国企业债务负担的庞大规模——相当于国内生产总值(GDP)的250%,相比之下2008年为125%——意味着,即使短期利率微幅上涨都可能挤压企业活动,引发违约,从而阻碍经济增长。

Alex Wolf, emerging markets economist at Standard Life Investments, argues that default risks are rising because more and more corporations are relying on the short-term money market to raise the finance they need to repay existing debts.

标准人寿投资(Standard Life Investments)的新兴市场经济学家亚历克斯.沃尔夫(Alex Wolf)认为,违约风险正在上升,因为越来越多公司在依靠短期货币市场筹集资金以偿还现有债务。

Rising rates, especially short-term, increases the stress on weaker companies and raises the risk of defaults, he said.

他说,利率上升,尤其是短期利率上升,加大了较弱公司所受的压力,增加了违约风险。

The six-month Shanghai interbank offered rate, a benchmark short-term interest rate, has surged in recent weeks as monetary conditions have tightened.

随着货币条件收紧,6个月期的上海银行间同业拆放利率(一种基准短期利率)近几周出现飙升。

Estimates by Fitch, the rating agency, reveal a level of pain in corporate China that is not hinted at by official statistics.

评级机构惠誉(Fitch)的估算揭示了从官方数据看不出的中国企业经受痛苦的程度。

Some 15 per cent to 21 per cent of loans in the Chinese banking system are already non-performing, Fitch estimates, compared with official numbers of less than 2 per cent.

据惠誉估计,中国银行体系约15%到20%的贷款已经属于不良贷款,而官方的不良贷款率还不到2%。

Against this backdrop, an upsurge in Chinese capital outflows, to nearly $70bn in November, intensifies the challenges facing Beijing.

在这种背景下,中国资本外流的激增(11月接近700亿美元)加剧了中国政府面临的挑战。

With money pouring out of China, Beijing has little choice but to tighten domestic monetary conditions in spite of the difficulties for companies already unable to service their debt.

随着资本不断流出中国,北京方面别无选择,只得收紧国内货币条件,尽管这会使已经难以偿还债务的企业更加艰难。

The Institute of International Finance, a global association of financial institutions, calculates that in the first 10 months of this year net capital outflows from China totalled $530bn, with October marking the 33rd straight month in which more money left the country than flowed in.

金融机构的全球协会——国际金融协会(Institute of International Finance)估计,今年头10个月,中国的资本净流出总计5300亿美元,10月是连续第33个月资金流出超过资金流入。

A strong dollar makes US assets more attractive relative to those held in a depreciating renminbi, prompting the Chinese to search for ways around recently-strengthened capital controls to send their money offshore.

相对于以不断贬值的人民币计价的资产,强势美元让美国资产更具吸引力,这促使中国人想方设法避开最近收紧的资本管制,将资金转移到境外。

The rise in short-term interest rates might also hit one of the weakest pillars in China’s financial architecture.

短期利率上升还可能冲击中国金融架构的最弱支柱之一。

Several midsized banks, such as the Bank of Jinzhou, find it hard to attract deposits and rely, therefore, on borrowing from the short-term money markets — but the cost of such borrowing is now rising.

锦州银行(Bank of Jinzhou)等几家中型银行发现很难吸引存款,因而依赖从短期货币市场借款,但这种借款的成本现在开始上升。

Property companies — a mainstay of the wider economy — are also acutely vulnerable to the surge in short-term rates.

房地产公司(整体经济的主力军)也极容易受到短期利率飙升的影响。

Bond issuance by developers has plummeted since authorities tightened rules in October to rein in an overheated market, CRImping their ability to invest in new projects.

自中国政府今年10月收紧规定以控制这个过热的市场以来,开发商的债券发行已大幅减少,这损害了它们投资新项目的能力。

In November, property developers issued only Rmb12bn ($1.7bn) in bonds, down from a monthly average of Rmb86bn from January to September, according to FT Confidential Research, a unit of the Financial Times.

根据英国《金融时报》旗下投资参考(FT Confidential Research)的数据,今年11月,房地产开发商仅发行了120亿元人民币(合17亿美元)的债券,而1月至9月的月度均值为860亿元人民币。

Such economic stresses are complemented by the raft of political uncertainties that attend Mr Trump’s accession to the White House.

伴随特朗普当选美国总统出现的一系列政治不确定性,加大了这种经济压力。

He has threatened to slap tariffs on Chinese exports to the US and label Beijing a currency manipulator because of charges that the renminbi is undervalued.

特朗普曾威胁要对中国输美商品征收关税,并且要把中国列为一个汇率操纵国,因为有人指控人民币被低估。

Is Donald Trump looking for a foreign enemy to redirect the attention of his supporters as he implements a plutocratic fiscal agenda with his plutocratic cabinet? said Gary Greenberg, head of emerging markets at Hermes Investment Management, a fund.

基金公司Hermes Investment Management新兴市场主管加里.格林伯格(Gary Greenberg)表示:在唐纳德.特朗普的富豪内阁实施以富豪为导向的财政议程之际,他是不是在寻找一个外敌,以转移其支持者的注意力?

A telephone call last week between Mr Trump and the leader of Taiwan, with which the US has no diplomatic relations, has also strained relations.

上周特朗普与台湾领导人通电话也影响了中美关系,美国与台湾之间没有外交关系。

The Taiwan call, along with undiplomatic tweets, gives [Mr Trump] a far away enemy who can be targeted as the source of US ills, Mr Greenberg said.

与台湾通电话,再加上不遵守外交规矩的推文,给(特朗普)提供了一个遥远的敌人,可以把美国的种种弊病都归咎于对方,格林伯格表示,

China can react very angrily.

中国可能会做出非常愤怒的反应。

Could this escalate? Possibly, but it is a little early to say.

这种局势可能会升级吗?有可能,但现在要下结论还有点早。

来自:VOA英语网 文章地址: https://www.veryv.net/html/20170102/422017.html